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However, a broader aspect of this problem stems from the idea that behavior is hierarchically organized, with goals increasingly important higher in the hierarchy, and thus harder to disengage from Presumably, disengaging from concrete values is often easy Lower order goals vary, however, in how closely they link to values at a higher level, and thus in how important they are To disengage from low-level goals that are tightly linked to higher level goals causes discrepancy enlargement at the higher level These higher order qualities are important, even central to one s life One cannot disengage from them, disregard them, or tolerate large discrepancies between them and current reality without reorganizing one s value system (Greenwald, 1980; Kelly, 1955; McIntosh & Martin, 1992; Millar, Tesser, & Millar, 1988) In such a case, disengagement from even very concrete behavioral goals can be quite dif cult.

it works for an unspeci ed baseline hazard pro le of any shape Without needing to explore the baseline hazard, investigators can examine effects of predictors without exploring absolute levels of risk Because the baseline hazard function can be easily ignored, researchers may fail to recognize substantively and statistically important information contained only in the baseline hazard function What kinds of information can be found The baseline hazard function and, under the proportionality assumption, its magni ed and diminished cousins describe the pattern and magnitude of risk over time; they indicate when the target event will occur and how likely that occurrence is (as in Figure 222) The hazard pro les in Figure 223, for example, show that women are still at greater risk of rst depression onset even in their forties All the predictor does is magnify or diminish this basic pattern of risk.

Now recall again the affective consequences of being in this situation The desire to disengage was prompted by unfavorable expectancies These expectancies are paralleled by negative affect In this situation, then, the person experiences negative feelings (because of an inability to make progress toward the goal) and is unable to do anything about the feelings (because of an inability to give up) The person simply stews in the feelings that arise from irreconcilable discrepancies This kind of situation commitment to unattainable goals seems a sure prescription for distress Watersheds, Disjunctions, and Bifurcations Among Responses An issue that bears some further mention is the divergence in the model of the behavioral and cognitive responses to favorable versus unfavorable expectancies We have long argued.

The ease with which the hazard function s shape can be ignored under the semiparametric method has a further ill consequence: It promotes the unthinking and dubious acceptance of the proportional-hazards assumption The ease with which a researcher can t a proportional-hazards model makes it all too easy to examine effects of predictors without examining the tenability of the underlying proportionalhazards assumption Notice, for example, that the sample log-hazard pro les in Figure 224 are neither identical in shape nor parallel, suggesting that the proportional-hazards assumption might not be tenable We believe that the tenability of the proportional hazards assumption must be viewed with some circumspection because those few researchers who have examined its tenability have found clear evidence of its violation In our own research on age at entry into child care (Singer, Fuller, et al.

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, 1998), teacher turnover (Murnane, Singer, Willett, Kemple, & Olsen, 1991), and physician turnover (Singer, Davidson, Graham, & Davidson, 1998), we have found that violations of the proportionality assumption are the rule rather than the exception We raise this issue because violation of the proportional hazards assumption is far more than a methodological nuisance The magnitude and direction of the effects of predictors may be estimated incorrectly if the hypothesized statistical model inappropriately constrains the log-hazard pro les to be parallel with identical shapes Ignoring such underlying failures can lead to incorrect substantive conclusions In an early informative paper, Trussel and Hammerslough (1983) documented differences in interpretation that arise when the proportional-hazards assumption is injudiciously assumed to be tenable in a study of child mortality (compare their Tables 3 and 4, particularly the effects of gender, birth order, and age of mother at birth).